Overview

  • Recent increases and uncertainty around US tariff rates have disrupted global supply chains, driving complex and delayed impacts caused by changed exporter behaviour.
  • Queensland exporters could face supply chain disruptions from reduced or changing global shipping volumes, together with increased compliance requirements at transshipment hubs.
  • Proposed US fees on Chinese operators and vessels from later this year could further alter global shipping patterns and present an increased barrier to trade.

Rising global trade restrictions


Recent new US tariffs have accelerated the long-term trend of increasing global trade restrictive policies. Throughout 2024 according to the World Bank Group, trade-restrictive measures were five times higher than the 2010-2019 average, signalling a shift in global trade ahead of the US tariffs.  

While the trajectory of US tariff policy remains uncertain, the increasing frequency and unpredictability of tariff changes has added complexity to global supply chains.  

According to the Hinrich Foundation, transshipment hubs are now facing heightened compliance requirements, including more rigorous security inspections and intensified scrutiny of rules of origin.

Economic lag and trade Impacts 

Due to sometimes long shipping transit times and changing exporter and importer behaviour (such as stockpiling ahead of tariffs coming into effect), tariff announcements can drive both pre-emptive and lagging supply chain impacts.  

For example, the US trade deficit (when a country’s imports exceed their exports) surged by during Q1 2025, the Bureau of Economic Analysis says, driven by a spike in imports as US companies scrambled to stockpile goods - especially ingredients used in manufacture of pharmaceuticals, ahead of expected tariffs. 

Queensland’s position in a changing global trade environment  

Queensland is less exposed to direct trade with the United States than most other Australian states and territories. However, secondary impacts are emerging in the integrated global trading system, with reduced shipping volumes causing logistical bottlenecks and uncreased compliance complexity.  

Proposed new fees for Chinese maritime operators and vessels

Compounding these challenges, the US Trade Representative has proposed new fees targeting Chinese maritime operators and vessels built in China. 

This could reshape global shipping, as China accounts for over 50% of global shipbuilding and maritime logistics. 

Proposed fees (Source: LEMAN) includes:

Chinese vessel operators

  • Annual fee starting at $50 per net ton beginning in October 2025.

  • Increasing to $140 per net ton by April 2028.

Chinese built vessels

  • Fees ranging from $18-$33 per net ton.

  • Container charges between $120-$250 per unit.

  • Exemptions apply to ships under 4,000 TEU and voyages under 2,000 nautical miles.

Meanwhile, falling global shipping costs (excluding US-China) have decreased over the past twelve months, according to Drewry, adding to uncertainty and complicate market forecast.

Considerations to help build supply chain resilience  

  • Monitoring key suppliers – Assess risks like financial stability and compliance.
  • Flexible contacts – Pricing that adjusts with tariff changes.
  • Strong supplier partnerships – Enhance responsiveness and adaptability.
  • Scenario planning – Prepare for potential tariff impacts.
  • Diversifying suppliers – Avoid over-reliance on specific regions or entities.

Queensland’s global connectivity advantage

Queensland is well-positioned to navigate global trade challenges, supported by strong logistics and export infrastructure, including four international airports (Brisbane, Gold Coast, Toowoomba Wellcamp, Cairns), and 21 seaports ranging from small community ports to major international terminals.  

With $108 billion (AUD) (Source: Queensland Treasury) in exports, Queensland alone contributes 21% of Australia’s total exports. The state’s global connectivity and exporter agility enables Queensland exporters to adapt to shifting trade dynamics.  

Stay up to date

To stay informed on the latest changes and exemptions, refer to the White House Clarification of Exemptions. 

For more detailed information on specific product tariffs, including applied rates, exemptions, and official definitions, consult the Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTS), which provides comprehensive classification details, chapter notes, and section notes relevant to U.S. trade. 

Please see Austrade Go Global Toolkit for additional information on the support for Australian businesses impacted by the US tariff changes.


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