Welcome to TIQ's first Strategic Insights Update. This monthly newsletter highlights global macroeconomic, geopolitical, trade and investment insights and their relevance to Queensland. For more information, contact us.
Key global insights
Russian export company EPT has agreed to supply China with 70m tonnes of grains and oilseeds over 12 years in a US$26 billion deal. China currently imports 17% of Queensland's total wheat exports and 65% of Queensland's total oilseed imports (source: ABS FY22-23).
Singapore Airlines will up-gauge their Cairns-Singapore service to A350-900 widebodies (4 flights per week) from March 2024. The service restores direct widebody connectivity from Cairns to a major Asian hub, offering opportunities for direct export of FNQ goods such as live seafood and fresh produce.
September was Australia’s driest and third hottest September on record. This comes after the BOM declared that an active El Niño weather pattern is underway, with a hot, dry summer forecast. Continued dry weather could Impact food and crop yields; this could lead to increased cattle slaughter, lowering beef prices in the short to medium term.
European policymakers making decisions around windfarms are increasingly trying to balance clean energy with biodiversity. There are also concerns around disposal of old turbine parts (which have a 15 to 20 year lifespan). This highlights the opportunities from the onward circular economy and development of sustainable practices.
PM Anthony Albanese visited the United States recently aiming to strengthen Australia-US collaboration in cutting-edge tech like quantum computing, undersea technology, AI, cyber technology, critical minerals, and clean energy transformation. This follows the Federal Government’s announcement of $2bn in additional critical minerals funding.
The United States is attempting to secure advanced technology supply chains and protect economic and national security. Highlights opportunities for US quantum computing investment (Australia is home to 10% of quantum computing scientists) supported by Queensland’s Quantum and Advanced Technologies Strategy.
Brisbane Airport Corporation expects international passenger volumes to reach 90% of 2019 levels during December to provide increased travel and trade opportunities. The increase comes off the back of increased frequency from Guangzhou and Shanghai and new routes such as United Airlines’ Los Angeles service.
Australia-EU FTA Talks Stalls
+ In Australian-EU Free Trade Agreement (FTA) is off the table for now after talks in Osaka failed to reach an agreement
+ Major sticking points include securing serious market access for Australian meat products and protections for continental goods
+ National Farmers Federation (NFF) President Fiona Simson said the EU was not offering a good deal for Australia’s agricultural sector
+ An FTA could still be struck in future however EU elections next year mean an agreement is unlikely in the short term
Latest World Economic Outlook
+ The latest IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) projects the global economy to grow 3.0% in 2023 and 2.9% in 2024 (the 2024 forecast is a -0.1% downward revision)
+ Queensland’s major trading partner (MTP) economic growth is forecast to be 3.5% in 2023 and 3.4% in 2024
+ Global headline inflation is expected to decline from its peak of 8.7% in 2022 to 6.9% in 2023 and 5.8% in 2024
+ The global economy continues to recover slowly from the blows of the pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the cost-of-living crisis, with remarkable resilience
+ Growth remains slow and uneven, with growing global divergences
Have You Seen?
- The IMF’s Regional Economic Outlook for Asia Pacific, available here: Regional Economic Outlook
- The Queensland Government’s announcement of $76 million investment to support commercialisation of research as part of the Queensland Quantum and Advanced Technology Strategy (Announced at CEDA: 4 October)
- The Federal Government’s $2 billion expansion in critical minerals financing
- Austrade’s weekly economic update - subscribe here
Last published: 8:28 AM, Thursday, 16 November 2023