- Pakistan’s Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif, (who acted as central mediator in talks), US President Trump and Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister, Kazem Gharibabad, each confirmed a ceasefire.(Bloomberg).
- A signing ceremony will be held in Switzerland on Friday 19 June, with the final agreement to be negotiated over the next 60days.
- Global markets showed signs of relief with oil prices easing to approx. US$80pb although no details or information on re-construction were provided.
While a peace deal has been secured, there is significant work to be done to achieve trade normalisation.
Factors to be considered range from freeing of ships stranded in the Strait since 1 March, re-commissioning of facilities that have been mothballed, re-construction of sites damaged by military action, to re-building trust in the safety of transiting the Strait.
| Dependencies | Estimated timeframe | Potential completion |
| Signing of MoU | 5 days | 19 June 2026 |
| Clearance of naval mines in Strait of Hormuz for safe transit of ships | Up to 2 months | Mid-August |
| US and Iran negotiations | 60 days | 18 August 2026 |
| Clearance of trapped shipping fleet and more than 14 million barrels per day of global oil supply currently stored in oil fields | Up to 3 months | Early – mid-September |
| Reassurance to international shippers, insurers and freight companies that ceasefire and negotiation will hold | Unknown | |
| Return of ships to the region | Up to 2 months – after clearances | Late September |
| Normal shipping traffic resumes in the Strait | Up to two months | Late November |
| Re-start of oil rigs and re-commissioning of mothballed facilities (LNG, oil plants, oil rigs) | 6-12 months | February-March 2027 |
| Reconstruction of damaged facilities | Up to 5 years | 2030-31 |
Source: Fortune
Flow on effects to inflation, food production and manufacturing as well as reconstruction of damage will take time as the world adjusts to a changed geopolitical and economic environment.
What it means for Queensland exporters
- Recovery of international fuel supply chains is likely to take six or more months however, disruption to commercial logistics, agriculture and other industry sectors will continue into 2027.
- Lower food production due to diesel and fertiliser shortages, plus more expensive manufactured goods have contributed to forecasts of higher inflation and economic contraction.
- Exporters continue to be encouraged to consider payment risk management, ensure they are aware of their insurance coverage, identify any opportunities for market diversification and actively communicate with their clients to manage their outlook for calendar 2027. (See Austrade’s Go Global Toolkit for additional information and support.)
Oil and gas supplies could take months to return to normal after Iran deal, energy experts say | Fortune.com 14 June 2026
Strait talking: Iran war scenarios and the future of energy | Wood Mackenzie, May 2026.
Middle East oil recovery to require months, once Strait of Hormuz remains open | S&P Global, 17 April 2026.
After the Iran war, how fast could global trade recover?, Deutsche Welle, 31 March 2026.
Prolonged war in Iran could tip the global economy into recession, Oxford Economics, 31 March 2026.
Accessing support
- Visit the Queensland Exporter Academy to access support for each stage of the export journey
- Register for upcoming webinars and briefings
- Share resources within your organisation or export network
